What did we learn about United States international higher education in 2019 and what can we expect in 2020?
In 2019, the US continued to lose market share of internationally mobile students.
Although the United States still has more international students enrolled on its campuses than any other country, the US has in fact been losing market share of this cohort for several years. The number of new international students has declined by 10% since 2015 and foreign student enrolment in the United States decreased by 6.6% in the 2017-18 academic year.
Countries with the fastest growing populations and growing middle classes in Asia, like Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam, have made higher education a national priority and have invested heavily in the sector. The result has been the creation of political and economic infrastructures in these countries that support higher education enrolments and regional education hub growth.
Other countries such as Canada, Australia, Japan, Germany and South Korea, among others, have made international higher education recruitment a priority and have successfully recruited, and substantially increased, international student enrolments in 2019.
One key by-product of China’s Belt and Road worldwide economic and infrastructure projects has been an increase in the number of international students enrolling in China from Belt and Road countries. It is impossible to know how many of these students, especially students from Africa, would have enrolled in colleges and universities in the United States. What we do know is that some portion of this student cohort elected to study in China rather than in the US.
What can we expect in 2020?
Competition from other countries will continue to increase in 2020. Australia Canada, Taiwan, South Korea, Malaysia, Japan, Singapore, Russia, Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Argentina and the United Arab Emirates have set ambitious international student recruitment goals for 2020. Many of these countries offer flexible visa application processes and generous employment options after graduation. Several offer scholarships to international students.
US international deans and recruiters are likely to look beyond their traditional international student markets and consider recruiting students from different countries. They will recruit future international students based on economic and political considerations and link academic programmes to future employment opportunities.
Technology will continue to play an increasingly important role in future US recruitment efforts. According to the most recent data from the Department of Education’s National Center for Education Statistics, 35%, or more than six million students worldwide, regularly enrol in at least one online course.
Digital technologies are transforming international student mobility. This year is likely to see international deans collaborating with academic deans to offer international students online programmes, reducing the time and money it will take to enrol and graduate from American programmes.
What can international deans and recruiters in the US do to reverse the decline in international students and increase international student enrolments in 2020 and beyond?
Here are six suggestions:
• Do data analytics: Data collection and a commitment to insight and discovery will be key to crafting meaningful international strategic recruitment plans in the future. Data analytics, databases and algorithms that can provide actionable information in order to make smart recruitment decisions will guide future international strategic plans. Predictive modelling can determine why, and when, international applicants decide to apply and enrol.
• Create a data portfolio for each country: International deans and recruiters should create a portfolio of information for each country in international strategic recruitment plans that includes the following: the number and names of currently enrolled international students, the number and names of current international families and the names of alumni. Presidents, provosts, academic deans, international deans and recruiters, alumni directors and faculty attending international conferences should be given this portfolio of information.
• Create collaborations and partnerships: International deans should increase partnerships with both national and international colleges and universities to offer international students two-plus-two-degree completion schemes (two years at community college then transfer to a university or college), three-plus-one international combined undergraduate and graduate degrees and mutually beneficial articulation agreements.
A fresh review of articulation agreements, bilateral agreements, international linkages and study abroad programmes should be made to determine if further collaboration is possible.
There are nearly 250,000 international students studying in the United States who are enrolled either in American high schools or in community colleges. International deans should consider partnering with local high schools and two-year colleges with large international student enrolments to create easy and flexible enrolment programmes.
• Expand your international student committees: International deans should expand the international student committee. Seats at the table should include: admission officers, international recruiters, several international students, an economist, a political scientist, a researcher, a member of the career counselling office, the alumni affairs office and the registrar.
• Focus on employability: A recent UNICEF poll, released in conjunction with the World Economic Forum held in Davos, Switzerland, in January, collected the opinions of 10,000 young people across 160 countries. The poll revealed that the top concern of future international students is future employment. International strategic plans should include information on the employment outcomes of graduates and placements in graduate or professional schools.
• Create international strategic plans that include parents: Future strategic plans should recruit the entire family, not just applicants. Most international students’ parents play a major role in deciding where their children will enrol. International deans should have a separate communication plan for parents and should use data analytics to determine which part of the branding proposition prompted parents to support enrolment.
New ways of thinking
There is economic, sociological and geopolitical disorder in the world today and international higher education and mobility are not immune from this disruption. Maybe this is not a time for old ways of thinking. The dark alchemy of disruption and unpredictability in the world demands a new way of thinking and planning.
In his book, Thank You for Being Late, the New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman quotes Lin Wells, a professor of strategy at the National Defense University, who describes three ways of looking at problems: inside a box, outside the box or thinking “without a box”.
For international deans and recruiters, thinking “without a box” may prove invaluable in navigating the disruptive waters of a new world order.
Marguerite Dennis is an internationally recognised expert in international student recruitment, enrolment and retention. She has more than 25 years of experience consulting with colleges and universities in the United States and around the world.
